What Happened?
Nigeria has been seen as one of the key states of Africa for decades. Adhering to its status as Africa’s most populous nation and one of its largest economies, Nigeria has often attempted to portray itself as a leader in International and regional peacekeeping, diplomacy and African Unity. Its most obvious effect has been on the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), where Nigeria has portrayed itself as the dominant power. (BBC News, 2011; BBC News, 2024; Al Jazeera, 2023a).
However Nigeria’s leadership qualifications are being tested through recent years. The July 2023 military junta in Niger became a defining moment. Nigeria, being an ECOWAS member, was totally opposed to the overthrowing of Niger’s democratic government and even advocated the possibility of military action to restore constitutional rule. But, Niger’s junta, declined diplomatic intervention, therefore revealing the limitation of Nigeria’s influence in a region influenced by military takeover. (Al Jazeera, 2023a; Al Jazeera, 2023b).
The Niger crisis was not an isolated event. Since the year 2020, several African countries such as Bali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Gabon and Niger, have gone through a number of attempted and military coups. These developments have led to larger debates on whether African governance is properly addressing the public's concern over protection, corruption, unemployment and rising living costs. (Al Jazeera, 2023c; Al Jazeera, 2024).
At the same time, Nigeria has been dealing with several internal challenges. Nigeria under President Bola Tinubu has implemented several economic changes, such as the removal of fuel taxation and monetary reforms, as an attempt to stabilise the public’s finances and draw in investors. Even though foreign investors and rating agencies have encouraged and praised these reforms, many Nigerians struggle to cope with economic challenges, high inflation and a declining monetary value. (Reuters, 2026a; Reuters, 2026b).
Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s claim to continental leadership is being assessed both within Africa and internationally.
Why it matters?
The debate over Nigeria’s role matters because Africa demands a greater role in global governance. Important topics such as United Nations reforms, equal representation of developing nations, climate change, trade and the restructuring of debt, all require a collective and combined voice of African states. (The Indian Express, 2023a; The Indian Express, 2024).
Historically, Nigeria has been viewed as the ideal candidate to represent Africa, due to its vast population, economic power, diplomatic advocacy and efforts to maintain peace in the region. This impression has been strengthened further by its leadership within ECOWAS.(BBC News, 2011; Al Jazeera, 2023a).
But things have become quite complicated lately. Military governments in West Africa had overlooked the authority of regional institutions. Frustration had spread across the continent. People started believing democratic governments are not delivering economic opportunities, security or effective public services properly. This belief therefore led to a decline in support for democratic institutions in several countries, and hence paved the way for military interventions and authoritarian alternatives. (Al Jazeera, 2019; Al Jazeera, 2023c; Al Jazeera, 2024).
This trend raises an important question - If democratic legitimacy itself is under pressure in several parts of Africa, then who has the power/authority to speak for the continent? Yet, Nigeria attempted to defend democratic norms in Niger and its attempts demonstrated both its ambitions and the growing resistance to traditional regional leadership systems. (Al Jazeera, 2023a; Al Jazeera, 2023b).
Hence it is clear that the issue is more than that of Nigeria alone. It concerns the future of African governance, regional cooperation and the ability of African states to act collectively in an increasingly fragmented international system.
What are the implications?
Several important implications emerge from these developments:
First, Nigeria is no longer the only nation aiming for authority. Other influential states like South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia and other emerging regional powers are beginning to contribute to continental debates. Due to the increasing number of such debates, the continent is most likely to head towards a multipolar leadership, rather than having a single African leader. (The Indian Express, 2023a; Al Jazeera, 2024).
Second, Nigeria’s local performance is becoming more and more linked to its global influence. Overseas authority might be difficult to establish in a country facing economic challenges, security concerns, political conflict and rising prices. Critics argue that Nigeria must first address its own personal concerns, before acting on and leading continental projects (Reuters, 2026a; Reuters, 2026b).
Third, African governance is in crisis due to the rising number of coups in several parts across the continent. Public discontent with corruption, insecurity and economic stagnation has reduced trust in democratic institutions. While some military governments received popular support, evidence suggests that some coups have not dealt with basic safety or development problems. Hence, this raises concerns about the future development of African states (Al Jazeera, 2023c; Al Jazeera, 2024).
Fourth, divisions in Africa may hinder collective action on global issues. If regional organisations find it hard to maintain agreement and democratic principles, African countries may find it difficult to coordinate positions on trade, climate change, security and international institutional reform (The Indian Express, 2023a; The Indian Express, 2024).
For India and other global south partners, these developments are particularly significant. A stable and influential Africa is important for trade, energy security, diplomatic cooperation and efforts to reform global governance reform institutions (The Indian Express, 2023a; The Indian Express, 2024).
What’s next?
Nigeria’s future influence will largely depend on its ability to advocate domestic reform with regional leadership.
Economically, the success or failure of Tinubu’s reforms will play a critical role. Supporters say painful challenges are needed to stabilise public spending, attract foreign investment and boost long-term growth. Critics on the other hand argue the social costs are still very high and common Nigerians are yet to get any meaningful benefits (Reuters, 2026a).
Politically, the 2027 presidential election approach will be closely watched. With growing opposition activity and popular disaffection, governance and economic performance will likely remain major themes in Nigerian politics (Reuters, 2026b).
Regionally, Nigeria is likely to remain a major defender of constitutional governance and democratic transitions, mainly through ECOWAS. But its ability to influence the outcome will depend on neighbours' perception of Nigeria, whether it will be an effective leader or just the biggest power in the region. (Al Jazeera, 2023a; Al Jazeera, 2023b).
At the continental level, Africa is likely to move towards a more multipolar leadership rather than a single power. Nigeria will continue to remain as one of the continent’s most important voices, but it may have to operate along with other African states rather than operating above them.
To conclude, the debate is not on whether Nigeria matters - it clearly does. The real question is whether a single country can represent a continent as diverse, complex and politically varied as Africa. Nigeria still remains a single contender for that role, but recent events suggest that Africa’s future may be shaped by multiple influential voices rather than one dominant leader.
References:
Al Jazeera. (2011, April 15). Country profile: Nigeria. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2011/4/15/country-profile-nigeria
Al Jazeera. (2019, June 12). 20 years of democracy: Has Nigeria changed for the better? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/6/12/20-years-of-democracy-has-nigeria-changed-for-the-better
Al Jazeera. (2023, August 1). A test of wills: Can ECOWAS reverse Niger coup and establish a new order? https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/8/1/a-test-of-wills-can-ecowas-reverse-niger-coup-and-establish-a-new-order
Al Jazeera. (2023, August 8). Niger coup leaders rebuff diplomatic overtures from AU, ECOWAS.
Al Jazeera. (2023, September 22). Africa's coup epidemic: Has democracy failed the continent?
Al Jazeera. (2024, October 23). Progress on African governance halts amidst war and coups, report.
BBC News. (2011, June 21). Nigeria country profile.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13949550
BBC News. (2016, March 10). Nigeria profile – Timeline.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35763121
BBC News. (2019, October 1). Nigeria at 59: The giant of Africa struggles to fulfil its promise.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-49904100
BBC News. (2024). Nigeria country profile.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13949550
Bloomberg. (n.d.). Africa coverage.
https://www.bloomberg.com/africa
Reuters. (2026, May 29). Nigeria's Tinubu says reforms stabilising economy despite hardship.
Reuters. (2026, June 1). Nigeria's Obi to run for president again after opposition split.
The Indian Express. (2023, September 12). African Union and the G20: Africa on the high table.
The Indian Express. (2024, March 24). Why India must put Africa at the heart of its Global South vision.